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Friday, February 26, 2010

Tricks of the Trade – Coin Buying



By Doug Winter


As a dealer who has spent over $100 million on rare coins, what are some of the “tricks” that I have learned that can help you when you are buying coins? Read on to see some of the ones that I think you will benefit most from.

When I buy a coin I am looking to sell it immediately for a profit. This makes my needs as a buyer slightly different than yours as a collector. But your ultimate goal, I would hope, is to sell your coins for a profit. What are a few of the most obvious but most important parameters to consider each and every time you buy a coin?

1. Buy Coins That Are Pretty

Numismatics has always been a highly visual hobby. But the advent of the Internet has made the visual aspects of numismatics more significant than ever before. When I look at coins now one of the first questions I ask myself is: will it image well on my website? Coins that are pretty are very easy to sell.

The term “pretty” is somewhat semantic. I tend to like gold coins that are dark and dirty and find these to be aesthetically appealing. Not everyone agrees me. Some people like gold coins that have bright, dazzling luster while others prefer coins that two-tone contrast between the devices and the fields. But I think most people can agree that a certain percentage of coins are, for lack of a better term, “special.” This does not necessarily mean “expensive.” I have seen circulated $100 Bust dimes that I thought were really pretty. The bottom line is that you should try and have as many pretty coins as possible in your collection.

2. Buy Coins That Are Popular

There are many coins that no matter how many examples I have purchased over the years, I have never lost money on them. As an example, I have probably owned twenty 1838-D half eagles in the past decade, ranging in grade from VF25 to MS62. Every time I’ve owned one, it has sold quickly to a happy collector and I’ve made a decent amount of money on each transaction. It’s obvious to me why this date sells quickly: it’s a first-year-of-issue, it’s a one-year type, it has a neat design, it’s a Dahlonega coin and it is relatively affordable.

In the last few years, key date coins in virtually every series have shown dramatic increases in value. There is a good reason for this: they are very popular and this creates a constant level of demand for these issues. In some cases (like 1901-S quarters or 1907 High Reliefs) prices are now probably too high and these key issues are currently overvalued. But I would personally rather have a collection (or inventory) that was full of popular coins than ones that were too esoteric and hard to sell.
3. Buy Coins That Are Problem-Free

I’m pretty staggered at how unappealing most coins are that I see these days. As I look through other dealer’s inventories at coin shows or at auction lots, nearly every coin I pull out has some sort of problem. It has been dipped. It has funky color. It has hairlines from an old cleaning. That’s why when I see something that I really like, I try and aggressively pursue it.

In certain 18th and 19th century series, it is likely that 90-95% of all the coins currently on the market have some sort of problem. If you can patiently and carefully assemble a collection that focuses on the remaining 5-10% of the coins that are what I would call high end and choice, you will have a truly significant coin collection.

4. Buy Coins That Pre-Sell Themselves

Every time I’ve made a big mistake purchasing a coin for inventory, it’s been a coin that I had to give myself a hard sell on. I’ve found that my first impression regarding a coin is inevitably correct. If I see a coin and it makes me gasp because it’s so pretty or it’s so above-average an issue that usually comes with bad eye appeal, I’m inevitably going to buy this coin no matter what. If my first reaction is “I don’t really like this” or “It’s OK except that spot in the right obverse field sort of bothers me” that doesn’t strike me as the sort of coin that is going to go flying out of my inventory when it is imaged and described on my website. As a rule, if you don’t like a coin the first time you see it, don’t buy it.

5. Buy Coins That Have Been Pre-Screened

Never, never, never buy expensive coins sight-unseen or based solely on a mediocre quality image with no return privilege. It’s one thing if someone is trying to sell you a generic MS63 St. Gaudens double eagle sight-unseen; even if the coin is low-end it is essentially a commodity and what it looks like is not especially important. But I can’t tell you how many times I’ve had clients send me expensive coins that they have purchased sight-unseen out of an auction and how many times I’ve had to politely tell them that it is very low-end. If your dealer insists you buy coins sight-unseen, find another dealer. If you think you can buy nice coins sight-unseen out of auctions, swallow your pride and hire a trusted representative to view the coins in person for you.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Only Rich Collectors Can Finish Indian Set




By Paul M. Green


Mothers often tell their children to look but don’t touch and the admonishment might apply to collectors, too, when it comes to the Indian Head $10 gold piece. It is an expensive set. That is only natural you might think because each coin contains almost a half ounce of gold, but it is more than that. There are some expensive rarities among the 33 coins in the set.

In some respects, the $10, which was designed by Augustus Saint-Gaudens, is overshadowed by the better known $20.

Indian Head gold eagles are in many cases much tougher than collectors today might assume. Had it not been for numbers found in European hoards over the years, our supply of many dates in Mint State would be much lower than it is today.

Moreover, the Indian Head gold eagle had a real problem in terms of travel as Liberty’s cheek, which is very prominent on the obverse, was basically the highest point in the design. When stacked or bagged for travel to and from Europe that cheek often picked up a lot of marks. Being so visible it becomes a problem to find Indian Head gold eagles in top grades and even those in Mint State can sometimes be seen as unattractive due to bag marks and other defects frequently in very visible places.

The first Indian Head gold eagles did not have the problems with bag marks as they basically never reached circulation. They were really attempts to see if the Indian Head gold eagle was going to have the same problems with relief that were causing troubles with the double eagle.

In fact, the whole process had been one of a struggle between Augustus Saint-Gaudens and President Theodore Roosevelt on one side and Chief Engraver Charles Barber on the other. The roots of the difficulties probably stretched back to at least 1892 when Barber and Saint-Gaudens had been involved in the judging of an ill-fated design competition of that year for new dimes, quarters and half dollars.

After that design competition, Saint-Gaudens and Barber had basically kept out of each other’s way for almost 15 years until Teddy Roosevelt came along. Roosevelt was not short of opinions when it came to U.S. coins. He thought the designs were bad, which did not go over especially well with Barber as some of those designs were his. What Roosevelt wanted were coins more like ancient Greece or Rome and the artist whom he thought could produce the coins he wanted was Augustus Saint-Gaudens. It probably took some convincing as Saint-Gaudens historically stayed away from Barber and the Mint, but finally Roosevelt got Saint-Gaudens to begin work on designing new gold coins.

What followed was something of a mix and match exercise where Saint-Gaudens would create designs and then he and Roosevelt tried to figure out what the denomination would be for the design.

In the case of the Indian Head gold eagle, the obverse started as a head of “Victory” that Saint-Gaudens had used on the Sherman monument in 1905. Roosevelt liked the head but wanted a headdress as there is no doubt Roosevelt had a special liking for a headdress that he felt was more American than a Liberty cap seen on some of the earlier issues.

Saint-Gaudens went along with the idea although the headdress that was also tried on the obverse of the Saint-Gaudens double eagle was not used.

It does not appear that Barber was consulted originally, perhaps in part because Saint-Gaudens and Roosevelt probably knew all too well the objections he might raise. Moreover, Barber is known to have prepared his own pattern for a double eagle so he probably could not be expected to be especially helpful with another person’s design.

When it came time to try the double eagle and gold eagle there was Barber with the likely objections. The problems with the double eagle are well known but the situation involving the gold eagle is less clear. We basically have to read between the lines with the logical suggestion being that they were trying Indian Head gold eagles but that the relief as was the case in the double eagle was too high.

The first attempt at a gold eagle involved a design that had triangular periods before and after E PLURIBUS UNUM. The 1907 coins came with either a more common wire rim or with a regular rounded rim. In fact neither would ever reach circulation.

The mintage of the wire rim was put at 542 of which 70 were called damaged and later destroyed in the 1914-1915 period. That leaves roughly 470 of which an estimated 400 remain today. They are very much in demand as they are a reflection of the coin Saint-Gaudens and Roosevelt had hoped to make with prices of $7,500 in VF-20 while an MS-60 is $13,750 with an MS-65 at $52,000. The prices are strong when you realize that the Professional Coin Grading Service alone reports 348 examples graded. Some were probably repeat submissions, but that is still quite a total for a coin at the current price levels. The MS-65 price is also high in light of the numbers seen as PCGS currently has seen 51 examples in MS-65 or better.

The experiments continued with a 1907 without stars on the edge, but it is unique, suggesting it truly was a pattern or an oversight and not seriously considered as a coin to be released. The 1907 with the period and a regular or rounded rim is a very different matter as there appears to have been confidence that this design was going to work. It had a production level of 31,500. We cannot be sure of the reason but that entire mintage except for a reported 42 coins was destroyed. That’s a significant amount of melting and it leaves us with very few examples today.

The Smithsonian received two examples and of the remaining 40 it is believed that perhaps one-half are still known. In fact, it’s a little hard to square with the grading service totals as PCGS has seen 48, which is more than the number thought to have survived. In all probability many examples were submitted, but even so the 48 graded does seem to raise a question as to how many of the assumed 40 remaining pieces are still known. With a VF-20 price of $26,000 while an MS-65 is $250,000 the rounded edge 1907 is still certainly a popular item as otherwise the 32 graded in MS-65 or better would probably not justify such a high MS-65 price.

As it turned out, Augustus Saint-Gaudens would pass away in 1907 during the middle of all the activity, leaving finding a coin that would work basically up to Charles Barber, who did not want to be making Saint-Gaudens coins in the first place.

The coin that finally emerged was a 1907 with lower relief and without the periods. It would have an initial mintage of 239,406 and can safely be called the first Indian Head gold eagle to reach circulation. The prices today show the 1907 at $651 in VF-20, $815 in MS-60 and $10,000 in MS-65. The MS-65 price probably reflects the popularity of the 1907 as the PCGS total in MS-65 or better stands at 189, which under normal circumstances is a solid supply.

Even with all the experiments, the Indian Head gold eagle was not finished when it came to modifications. Roosevelt’s reading of the Bible convinced him that the motto should not appear on coins. It was left off in 1907. Congress disagreed, requiring IN GOD WE TRUST to be put on the new design in 1908.

Prior to that addition, there were 1908 mintages without the motto. The Philadelphia total without the motto was just 33,500 pieces. This makes it a $800 coin in MS-60 and $14,500 in MS-65 where PCGS has seen only 26 examples. The 1908-D without the motto had a mintage of 210,000 and while more available in most grades such as MS-60 where it is $840 the 1908-D without the motto is extremely tough in MS-65 where it lists for $37,500 and that is supported by the fact that combined PCGS and Numismatic Guaranty Corp. have seen only 15 examples.

The motto was added to the rest of the 1908 mintage and all later mintages. For the period leading up until 1916, mintages of the $10 gold coin would prove to be regular at least insofar as there would be Indian Head gold eagles produced at one of three facilities virtually every year.

Denver’s output seemed to be the most sporadic, having large mintages one year and then a year or two of no production but one way or another in virtually every year to 1916 there would be a new Indian Head eagle emerging from at least one facility. That leaves us with a decent supply of type coins with a VF-20 priced at around $632 depending on the price of gold while an MS-60 is about $785 with an MS-65 much more expensive at $8,400 for the cheapest, reflecting the fact that there are simply not many examples that escaped one problem or another that put bag marks on the cheek, keeping them from MS-65.

In circulated grades the dates from 1908-1916 are a group most collectors can assemble. In fact it might be a fun way to own a little gold bullion. The price premiums are relatively modest, putting most better dates like the 1911-D, which had a mintage of 30,100 or the 1913-S with a 66,000 mintage, at prices starting around $700 and those have to be seen as pretty good deals in light of the fact that in circulated grades most of the price just covers the metallic value.

Worthy of note when considering the prices and the good values they represent is the fact that these are among the prime dates that would have been melted as a result of the Gold Recall Order of 1933. While we have no census of the melted dates, over 30 percent of all the gold eagles ever produced in history were melted at the time these Indian Head gold eagles were prime candidates to be turned in by the public and destroyed. If anything, their sometimes low mintages might well give an overly optimistic view of numbers available today.

Things are different in Mint State. There are a couple of factors that have to be remembered with the first being that there was very little collecting of gold eagles back at the time these coins were released. As a result, a large percentage of the supplies available today in Mint State are lower Mint State grades that were discovered in bank vaults all over the world having been exported for a variety of reasons prior to the Gold Recall Order of 1933.

The numbers found in the banks around the world do not by definition reflect the mintages. The two dates that seem to stand out based on price in MS-60 are the 1911-D at $5,580 and 1913-S, which is currently priced at $4,000. They are followed by the 1915-S, which is $3,150 in MS-60.

It is, however, worth noting that a date like the 1911-S or 1908-S just to name a couple show relatively low Mint State totals at the grading services, but do not have the prices that might be expected based on their totals. That could change with additional demand, but whether that demand ever appears is another matter. As it stands right now it could be fairly suggested that there may well be some Mint State sleepers to be found.

In MS-65 where almost any Indian Head gold eagle is a difficult coin, the 1911-D and 1913-S which are each currently priced at $100,000 or more stand out and with good reason as combined PCGS and NGC have graded only four examples of the 1913-S and just three of the 1911-D. There are other dates that should be watched as the 1914-S for example has a low total of coins reaching MS-65 and unlike most other dates it almost never is seen in any higher grade.

After 1916 things changed dramatically in terms of gold eagle mintages. Instead of regular production at one facility or more, mintages almost stopped entirely. Things were changing on a variety of fronts. A big problem for gold was World War I. As of 1916, only Great Britain among the belligerents remained on the gold standard.

Not yet fighting, the United States was receiving large amounts of gold back from abroad as the Allies bought munitions, reducing the demand for new gold coins.

Americans also for years had been turning away from the idea of carting around gold coins, opting instead for bank notes.

There would be only five additional gold eagle mintages after 1916 and two of them, the 1926, with a mintage of over 1 million pieces and the 1932, with a record high total of nearly 4.5 million, are available.

The other three dates are a very different story. They are tough and are seen as dates that were heavily melted after the Gold Recall Order of 1933. The most difficult of the three to explain is the 1920-S, which had a mintage of 126,000. The mintage would probably make the 1920-S a better date, but one with a VF-20 price of $800 or so and not the current $9,800. That price alone suggests that the 1920-S was heavily melted.

The 1930-S has a similar story with a mintage of 96,000, but a price of around $7,500 in VF-20. The two are also costly in Mint State, although the higher mintage 1920-S is more costly at $36,500 in MS-60 as opposed to $23,500 for the 1930-S, while an MS-65 1920-S is at $245,000 and the 1930-S is at $74,500.

The grading services explain the prices as at NGC they have seen fewer than 30 Mint State examples of the 1920-S and only two of the total reached at least MS-65, while the 1930-S has appeared 61 times with 14 examples reaching at least MS-65.

At PCGS the 1920-S has been graded 53 times with only two being MS-65 and another two being MS-66 while the 1930-S has been graded 100 times with 17 at MS-65 along with three at MS-66 and one at MS-67.

One thing that stands out about the 1930-S is that it seemingly did not circulate as the examples seen are almost never circulated. It probably did not have enough time to circulate. Of the 100 seen by PCGS, only seven were called circulated and they were all AU-58. That’s a very unusual percentage suggesting that no 1930-S circulated for long. The 1920-S has a much higher percentage of the coins graded being in various circulated grades, suggesting that it, unlike the 1930-S, was in circulation in some numbers.

The key 1933 is a special case. It cannot be expected to be found in circulated grades simply because it had no time to actually circulate. It was produced and available but then along came the Gold Recall Order and the 1933 was simply melted in significant numbers. At least the government recognizes that the 1933 was legally issued, unlike the 1933 Saint-Gaudens double eagle where only one example is considered legal to own and that coin brought $7.59 million at auction.

The 1933 Indian Head gold eagle is available in slightly higher numbers, although it is certainly not cheap at $110,000 in VF-20, $165,000 in MS-60 and $575,000 in MS-65. The problem with the 1933 is that although we have a VF-20 price there are almost certainly no VF-20 coins today. The 1933 simply did not circulate long enough to reach VF-20.

The grading services illustrate the situation as NGC has seen 20 examples of the 1933 and all graded MS-62. The PCGS total of 23 is more diverse with grades ranging from MS-62 to MS-65, but the problem in finding a circulated example is clear. The 1933 is priced higher than the numbers known would suggest, but that is probably because of demand for a famous date.

It’s a challenge to assemble a set of Indian Head gold eagles. You need to be rich to do it. Average collectors should consider a type example, or the dates 1916 and earlier. If you win the lottery, you could go on to complete the whole set.

Saturday, February 06, 2010

1943-S Lincoln Cent Struck in Bronze sold by Heritage for $207K



Posted By CoinLink


The Amazing Branch Mint Error Rarity Graded VF35 by PCGS

Coming on the heels of Heritage’s offering of a 1943 bronze cent struck at Philadelphia in their January 2010 FUN Auction, Heritage has just sold this 1943-S bronze cent in the February 2010 Long Beach Auction.

Few coins are so misunderstood, so mysterious, so legendary as the 1943 cents struck in bronze, known informally as the 1943 “copper” cents.

In 1943, the U.S. Mint switched from bronze to zinc-plated steel for cent coinage in an effort to conserve copper for use in World War II. Over a billion “Steel Cents” were struck by the three Mints combined in 1943, though a majority of the known 1943 “copper” cents were struck in Philadelphia, not Denver or San Francisco. Fewer than 20 are known.

Most experts believe the error occurred when left-over bronze planchets were mixed with a batch of the new Steel planchets that went through the usual striking methods, then escaped into circulation.

An article by Gary Eggleston stated “In the June issue of the “Numismatist,” 1947, it was reported that a Dr. Conrad Ottelin had discovered a 1943 bronze Lincoln Head cent. A few weeks before Dr. Ottelin’s discovery, Don Lutes, Jr., a 16 year old from Pittsfield, MA, found one in his change from the high school cafeteria. Then in 1958, a boy named Marvin Beyer also found the 1943 bronze cent. With the publicity from all three finds, and estimates that these coins could sell for at least 5 figures (at that time) at auction, a national frenzy was created. Every man, woman and child sifted through their pocket change looking for their fortune.”
Henry Ford, the automobile titan, supposedly offered a new car in exchange for a 1943 “copper” cent.

More Philadelphia Mint 1943 bronze cents are known than D-mint and S-mint errors put together; most recent censuses state that only one 1943-D bronze cent is known, plus seven 1943-S bronze cents. The latter figure, however, may overstate the actual population by one or even two pieces, since most of the known survivors are clustered in a narrow range from AU to low Mint State.

In that respect, this coin is unusual by virtue of its Choice VF grade. It is also a relatively recent entrant to the numismatic marketplace; it was unknown to David Lange in 1996, when he published his Complete Guide to Lincoln Cents, having been “kept for decades” privately by the owner, but sold alongside the Dr. Carl A. Minning, Jr. Collection in an August 1999 auction by Bowers and Merena. How the coin came to be VF, unlike its fellows, remains unclear.

As expected for a VF35 coin, this piece shows light to moderate wear over each side, and the surfaces show a number of light digs and abrasions under magnification. That said, the overall eye appeal is far better than the preceding sentence might suggest. The coin’s glossy olive-gold and mushroom-brown color, accented in cobalt-blue, is highly redeeming, as is the strike. In short, a memorable opportunity for the Lincoln cent enthusiast, which could be either a second chance at a 1943-dated bronze cent or the second step to assembling a “date set” of these famous 20th century rarities.