Market thats Hot and thats Not

By Jim Fehr

Which are the best markets today? With all the touting that goes on, it’s important to always keep in mind that no one knows which coins will perform best. Based on the history of the certified rare coin market, however, some areas appear more promising than others.

You probably already know which coins have been doing exceptionally well over the past five to ten years but lets take a look at them again.These are series that are widely collected by date or have such a strong collector or numismatic appeal that they have risen repeatedly over the past decade and still seem to be a good value today.

1. Key Date Coins; XF to MS65.The best performing area of the rare coin market for the past nine years running. Think maybe they are topping out? Prices seem a bit silly relative to other coins? Acquisition cost relative to bids are too high? Well it doesn’t matter. These coins are the best, rarest, most known and most sought after, and they are being bought up by coin buyers with the deepest of deep pockets. They are desirable, rare, and not often seen for years at a time.They rarely go down and if they do it’s proportionally less to the rest of the market. This all translates to plenty of upside.

2. Early Walking Liberty Halves, MS64 and higher.Rare date Walkers prior to 1929 have seen modest price increases over the last three years, but have done very well over the last ten. Rare dates from 1916 to 1928-S in gradesMS64 and higher are constantly in demand and are always on dealers want lists. Among the earlier dates, 1917-D , 1917-S , 1918-S, 1919-D, 1919-S, 1920-D, 1920-S, 1921-P, D and S, 1923-S and 1928-S are dates that inMS63 and higher grades have seen the strongest demand and the biggest price jumps in the series over the last nine years. A 1921-D in MS65 now trades for two half times more than it did in 2002

3. Lincoln Cents MS64RD and higher.Seems anything even close to low pop, prior to 1950, has skyrocketed in demand and price. 200% gains or more over the last five to ten years.

4. Morgan Dollars; Key and Semi-key dates.Low pop keys and semi-key dates in this series have doubled, but they are so sought after by date, they may double again. These rare dates in MS60 to MS65 continue to offer an explosive combination of rarity and popularity like no other date collected series with the possible exception of twenty dollar Saint Gaudens.

5. Early 18th and 19th century silver and gold type.This includes Flowing Hair (1794 and 1795) and Draped Bust (1796 - 1807) half dimes, dimes, quarters, halves, dollars, $2 1/2, $5, and $10 gold pieces. Hard to find issues that were apparently way to cheap seven to ten years ago. Remember when a 1799 $10 in AU was a popular coin available for $5,500? They were rare and we all knew it, but they were over looked because of the grade. Today the same coin runs about $22,000.What happened? First and most important is that they are rare. They just did not survive 200 plus years in good condition. They were melted at various times as gold prices rose and because of their high face value not as many people could afford to save them as they did with cents and nickels. Today collectors and investors recognize this, along with the stunning beauty of the coin, and have taken them off the market. Expect the trend to continue and with so few coins around, today’s prices will seem low in five to ten years.

6.Twenty Dollar Saint Gaudens.As I have mentioned before, better rare date $20 St. Gaudens have done exceptionally well over last decade.The rarest dates are up as much as 300% and in some cases 400%. Why have they done so well? Continued strong date demand for the most sought after dates by collectors, investors and set builders.Also, because of their beauty, size, and metal – they’re very popular! I think over the next decade or so some of the Key dates and Semi-key dates will out perform the general market five to ten times over. The great thing is you can buy many dates in grades that are still affordable. Thirteen dates to watch are the 1908-S, 1909-D, 1920-S, 1921-P, 1925-S, 1926-D, 1927-D, 1927-S, 1929-P, 1930-S, 1931-P, 1931-D and 1932.

The Best Coins from Undervalued IssuesThe rare coins above have certainly done well but what about the rest of the market?One area that I think will be tomorrows winners are better dates from mint state and proof type series.

There is a free lunch of sorts in buying better-than-routine dates from good Type coin series if you can acquire them at or near relatively small premiums to the Type level.

Braided Hair Large Cents. Though all large cents are scarce coins and cheap right now, the MS65RD braided hair cents (the last variety issued 1839-1857) go for only $4,500, which is very little when you consider that PCGS has certified only 205 large cents as MS65RD and the NGC population is only 131. They are too scarce to be marketed commercially. Since no one dealer can acquire any significant quantity of them, they are not promoted. Their cost comes solely from rarity, so you get a lot of coin for the money. Braided hair large cents such as 1850, 1851, 1852, 1854, and 1856 can be had for almost Type money, yet each has an MS65RD combined PCGS and NGC population of 22 pieces or less, making them five times rarer than Type dates. Any date prior to 1850 seems like a great buy in MS65 regardless of color. The trouble is finding them. PCGS and NGC combined have graded less than 450 coins MS65 in all colors: brown, red/brown and red. Prior to 1850 there are only 16 coins graded MS65RD and 108 MS65RB’s by both services combined. If you can find an MS65RD or MS65RB at a reasonable level, which most are, buy it.

Capped Bust Halves. I love these in MS63 or higher because they offer the same opportunity all better date type coins do, plus they are becoming more widely collected by date. Minted from 1807 to 1839 these coins are quietly disappearing off the market. Two distinctly different types exist, lettered edge minted from 1807 to1836 and reeded edge from1836 to1839.Within the reeded edge varieties two types exist, those with ‘50 cents’ stamped on the edge and those with ‘half dol.’ on the edge. PCGS and NGC also grades over 50 varieties within the lettered edge dates, mostly over dates and large and small numbers.

Because of all the varieties and the fact that PCGS and NGC have graded enough coins in grades AU toMS64, they are becoming strongly date collected.Yet the premiums for better dates are still small compared to other date collected series. It’s a great time to be picking these up. The dates from 1807 to 1821 have an average MS63 population of just 17 pieces per year, as opposed to an average of 63 pieces per year for the years from 1822 to 1839. There is a premium for the earlier dates. Eleven of these dates run under $3,500 in MS63 condition, most are less then $600 dollars more then later dates in the same grade - for over six times the rarity.

Seated Quarters No Motto. Minted from 1840 to1865.I recommend them in all gradesMS64 or higher, but if you can find dates other than 1857, 1858, or 1861, you’re getting a bonus. Those three make up nearly half of the series population, that’s 101MS65’s out of the 230 for the series. These “common” dates run about $4,000 each in MS65. 53 different dates make up the other 129 MS65’s. In the early dates I like all dates from 1840 to 1853 in MS63 and higher grades.

Prices for these vary with MS64’s running about $2,850 and up. Among the proof no motto quarters, they all offer great value. Dates prior to 1858 are pricey because of their low mintages – 5 to 40 pieces made for each year. From 1858 to 1865 they struck between 100 and 1,000 each year.These later dates run about $5,650 each in PR65 and they have PCGS and NGC combined populations of 40 coins or less per date.

Seated Halves No Motto. All MS65 no motto halves are rare in MS65 and higher grades.Most have single digit populations inMS65 by either PCGS or NGC. Any date from1839 to 1853 in the early dates are great value in MS64 and higher grades. The 1853-P and O Arrows and Rays half can be bought in MS63 or higher. In the early Arrows halves (1854-55), the O mints are most common but are still great coins in MS64 and higher. I like these arrows halves inMS64 and higher. Expect to pay $3,300 to $3,500 for any date in MS64 and $2,500 more for the 1855/54. Like the No Motto quarters there are good dates in the series with low populations that won’t break the bank. Any date will cost you about $2,350 in MS64 and $5,800 in MS65. Try locating some early dates inMS64 for $3,000 to $4,500. Some neat dates are the 1840-P Rev. of 1839, 1843-P, 1847-P 1850-O and 1851-O. They all have combined PCGS and NGC populations inMS64 of 27 or less and PCGS and NGC see these dates once every couple years at best and that’s in any grade!

In MS65 some better latter dates that cost right at Type price are the 1856-P,1859-P, 1860-P, 1862-P, and the 1864-P. Don’t be afraid to pay an extra 15-25% for these dates if you have to, they are good deals and are worth even more than that.

Like the Proof no motto quarters, all the dates are excellent low mintage pieces. Prices are the same for dates 1859 to 1865 at about $2,750 for PR64’s and $6,400 for PR65’s. These are really good deals today when you consider they have mintages of just 460 to 1,000 pieces. That’s the total made, not the PCGS and NGC populations. The 1858, with just 100minted,would be a great find in any grade PR63 and higher. As a date it will run around 50% more than the other proof dates above.

Seated Dollar series. (both varieties, no motto and with motto). The 44 date series runs from1840 to 1873 and starting in 1866 the motto, “In God We Trust”, was added to the reverse. All gem MS65s from this series are quite rare with just single digit populations on many of the dates.The three most plentiful dates are 1860, 1871, and 1873.There are an additional 21 dates in the series with MS63 populations of 15 or more. Look for business strike samples of these dates in all gradesMS63 or higher and all other dates in any BU grades. Prices start at $4,500 forMS63’s and move higher for rarer dates. Proof no motto dollars are very tough to find in any dates other than 1862, 1863, 1864 or 1865. In PR65, for example, those 4 dates make up half the population of the series.Try to get these dates in PR64 or higher and any of the other dates in PR63 or higher. Good thing is you won’t have to pay any big premiums for the rarer dates after 1859, except for the 1866 no motto as there are only two known. The no motto’s in PR63 will cost you about $5,300 and with motto’s in PR63 are around $3,900.

Trade Dollars. Like the Capped Bust half series they are becoming very popular to collect by date. The most common mint state dates are 1875-S, 1876-S, 1877-S and 1878-S. All are recommended inMS64 or higher, though you’re getting a bonus if you can buy a date other than these four at 10%to 50%above the Type price.The four dates above will run about $4,650 inMS64. But some dates like the 1873-P and S, 1874- P and S in MS64, offer great value. I also like the 1874-CC and 1875- CC in MS63 or higher. They are popular mint mark dates that the grading services rarely see anymore. Proof trade dollars have something in common with proof three cent nickels. In both series, the early dates are rarest. Proof trade dollars dated 1873 to 1878 have lower populations than the 1879 to1883 issues yet they all trade for about the same price.

Look for earlier dates in PR63 and higher and the latter dates in PR64 and higher. PR63’s will cost approximately $3,200 and PR64’s around $5,500. Any date trade dollar in PR65 is a good value coin and are available for about $10,750 to $11,500.

Will these Type coin series ever develop a strong date following? Impossible to say. But my money is on them becoming collected by date more and more over the next decade. You can see the trend beginning as buyers look for undervalued areas of the market. Rarity information is more available and buyers like getting extra value for their money.

Perhaps, a few years from now, when you put your “Type” coin in an auction, someone wanting or needing the date will attach a 50% to 200% premium to it that you never had to pay. Or better yet, maybe several bidders will.